Paul The Octopus

If you have been following the World Cup, you may have heard about Paul the Octopus living in the Oberhausen Sea Life centre in Germany, who predicts the outcomes of the German soccer matches. To get a match prediction, two mini tanks are set up with the octopus treats inside, marked with the flags of Germany and their respective opponent. When Paul the Octopus goes for the treats, the country represented on the mini tank is the predicted winner. So far he is been able to predict the outcomes of all five German matches in this World Cup. In the Euro 2008, Paul the Octopus was 80% accurate. So what is going on here?

As per usual, there are two possible explanations. First is that Paul the Octopus can actually predict the outcomes of soccer matches. If everything in the Universe is Energy, and everything is connected, and the concept of time is actually an illusion, then quite possibly Paul the Octopus may have ‘a gift’. On the other side there are skeptics who explain that statistically predicting outcomes of games with such accuracy it is not that improbable – and there is no need to involve anything ‘supernatural’. Picking 5 out 5 correct matches by chance is 3%. So if there were 100 animals picking outcomes of games, 3 of them would get all 5 right. The challenge is, we don’t hear about all the times that the match outcome was not consistent with the foresight.

Whatever the case may be, there is another prediction and another test for it later today. Paul the Octopus picked Spain to defeat Germany. I am cheering for Germany, so I hope that the damn octopus is wrong. If he is right however, I’ll be inviting people over for a Polpi in Umido.

Until next time,

V



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6 Responses to “Paul The Octopus”

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